Robots Poised To Take A Plethora Of Jobs
Some Computer Scientists recently claimed that by 2045 robots and automation will drop global employment from 60 to 50% having a dramatic yet still unpredictable impact on world economies and apparently the concept of leisure-time itself.
In February 2016, the American Association for the Advancement of Science held its annual meeting in Washington DC. These are the guys that publish Science Magazine. At that meeting computer scientists and machine ethicists discussed the future of robots in the workplace, and AI. Many concluded that it could cause mass unemployment and unpredictable effects on the economy.
Likewise, a recent report from Citibank concluded automation could threaten 69% of the jobs in India, 77% of the jobs in China, and 47% of jobs in the United States.
And finally, The World Economic Forum reported early in 2016 a warning that the rise of robots will lead to a net loss of more than 5 million jobs in world economies by 2020.
So…ok, robots are gonna take a lot of jobs in the future.
So who will be affected? It looks like people with moderate skills at first according to Moshe Vardi, a computer scientist at Rice University in Houston, Texas. Attorneys, doctors, and, computer programmers will be ok. Anything where creativity and contextualization are important. At the other end of the spectrum, jobs such as those in the food-service industry will be ok as well since they cost so little, it wouldn’t be worth it to replace them with robots.
If however you’re a data entry clerk, in a call center, in the manufacturing industry, or anyone that’s in delivery or shipping, you’re days may be the first to go.
So for example, 10% of the jobs in the US operate a vehicle as a major part of their job description. We are already seeing the rise of seriously competent autonomous cars. It doesn’t take much prescience to see that many people who drive for a living could easily be replaced within a generation.
Stopping this Rise of the Machines is not a realistic option in my opinion. Much of this advance will be part of the 4th Industrial Revolution, called Industry 4.0.
We’ve all heard of the industrial revolution. It wasn’t a one-time event however. Major new technologies over the decades have re-invigorated it to such a degree that many believe they each warrant their own version number.
- Industry 1.0: Water/steam power
- Industry 2.0: Electric power
- Industry 3.0: Computing power
- Industry 4:0: Internet of Things power
Industry 4.0 is a term created in Germany and is used primarily in Europe now. These are advances that are used in manufacturing to a certain extent today but they are somewhat isolated. Industry 4.0 will coordinate them in a production flow that is fully integrated, automated, and optimized; re-defining the relationship between suppliers, producers, and customers—as well as between human and machine.
These hallmark technologies of Industry 4.0 include:
- Big Data and Analytics
- The Industrial Internet of Things
- Additive Manufacturing
- Augmented Reality
- Simulations
- Autonomous Robots
Given the focus of this article, I will only discuss the autonomous robot aspect. These robots won’t be in cages separated from people for safety as they’ve been for decades. These new robots are and will be more autonomous, flexible, and cooperative. They will interact not only with each other but with people, working side by side, learning from their human co-workers as they go.
Moshe Vardi says:
“We are approaching the time when machines will be able to outperform humans at almost any task. Society needs to confront this question before it is upon us: if machines are capable of doing almost any work humans can do, what will humans do?
A typical answer is that we will be free to pursue leisure activities. [But] I do not find the prospect of leisure-only life appealing. I believe that work is essential to human well-being.”
I think that last part is total bullshit. How many people do you know who actually really look forward to work and wake up excited to get there? Some do, for sure, and they are (unreligiously) blessed and rare. My brother Jay and I often talk about what we’d do if we won a multi hundred million dollar lotto and had nothing but free time. I’d travel and write and create and spend time with my family and friends and binge Netflix like a champ. I’m passionate about many things and my well-being (and others) is best served by engaging these passions, thank you very much.
Some say that, at this point, these are theoretical risks. Culture is unpredictable. Just because work can be done by robots doesn’t mean they will. That attitude is naive I think. We are clearly in for major societal changes caused by robotic automation.
The best thing to do about robots taking away so many jobs is the same thing we have to do about other imminent disruptive technologies. PREPARE PREPARE PREPARE. The more we talk about it and anticipate the more we’ll be able to deal with it when it comes.
One way to deal with this was in that Citibank report. They say that many workers will have to retrain as jobs are lost. They say that investment in education is the best thing that can be done to minimize disruption.
Ultimately though, this is just an interim issue I think. When we start seeing advanced molecular nanotechnology and the intelligence explosion of Artificial Intelligences, that will be Industry 5.0 (or perhaps its ultimate expression…The Singularity). No one’s jobs will be safe no matter what you do or how smart you are. That could be an amazing thing or quite the opposite. Our goal in the next generation or two should be to increasingly focus on reaping all of the potential benefits of these transformative technologies and prevent its abuse.
Either way, it’s gonna be a helluva ride, people
Image Credit: http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/happens-robots-can-jobs/
I don’t know whether to be excited at the prospect or to be completely terrified. Either way, its pretty damn cool.
“At the other end of the spectrum, jobs such as those in the food-service industry will be ok as well since they cost so little, it wouldn’t be worth it to replace them with robots.”
I’m not sure about that. The robots will be less expensive in the future, the emplpyees more expensive (if only to keep up with inflation).
Where I live, in Sweden, it is expensive to employ people, and automation is slowly but surely taking place in grocery stores and fast-food restaurants. If it is successful in Sweden and other European countries, the technology might well be exported to the USA. The initial cost is then already paid for in Europe, and the finished technology can be easily exported.
I don’t think that automation will mean the end of work. Once all humans were hunter-gatherers. When we became agricultural, far fewer people were needed to produce food, but the rest of society didn’t become unemployed, they found other things to do, like pottery or trading or smithing. You can see a similar pattern in the wake of industrialization. I think a similar outcome will be the place now. Probably there will be new kinds of jobs that we can’t even imagine right now.
You are describing the “Luddite Fallacy”:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_unemployment#The_Luddite_fallacy
It’s true time and time again throughout history more jobs were found that humans could do after automation was introduced. That said as our automation technology is getting better and better I would keep an eye on the unemployment rate all the same. If it consistently trends upward do to technological advances, we may have to start considering other options than standard welfare systems (e.g., guaranteed basic income).
To add on:
A fast Google search say that an Swedish McDonald’s employee working 8 hours per day earns about 16’000 SEK per month ($1’900 USD). With taxes, holiday pay, and insurance they cost the fast food company about $2’500 USD per month.
A fast food robot can work non-stop all day. If one robot only can manage do the work of one person, they can replace up to three workers (8 hours * 3 workers = 24 hours).
This lonely little robot will then save the company up to $88’000 per year, and that’s if they are closed on the weekends.
If that slow-working robot cost $150’000 they will break profit within two years.
I think a huge problem, which Bob was hinting at, is the economics of this change. When someone’s removed from their job of low skills, how will they get the money to live when they have no other viable job to go to? I doubt the people who are profiting of this wide spread automation are just going to give the money out for them to live a leisurely work free life.
For all the people who get replaced by a robot or automation, where do they get the money to live this life of leisure, creativity, travel?????? How do they stay home and enjoy the freedom from their ho-hum job when in a couple months when they can’t pay the mortage, they have no home to stay home IN???
Hey Bob
Interesting and provocative article. I think a lot about the effect technology – specifically AI and autonomous robots – will have on people, society, culture and economies. We sure do live in fascinating times.
However, I’d like to parse one thing you said and ask if you agree with my addition
In response to the quote by Moshe Vardi you said you thought That his comment that work is essential to human well-being was bullshit. I don’t know who that is. But I’d like to differentiate between a “job” and a “career”
I think of a job as something you do for money. It may or may not be enjoyable. But, a career is something that you can devote your life to. It’s a way to tie your passion into your livelihood. Done well, your career enables your life work
Your life’s work (in my case being a professional musician) can help one find meaning in life. Because, as most atheists would agree, the universe has no intrinsic meaning beyond what we give it for ourselves.
Again, I don’t know who Moshe Vardi is. But I think it was Freud (?) who listed Love and Work as probably the most essential components to a happy life, or as Paul Kurtz said, a life well-lived. Maybe that’s what Moshe was saying
just a thought….
Did you proofread this or let a robot do it? There are some painful grammatical errors in this article.
Hopefully we’ll morph into a Star Trek like community where people won’t have to work to survive so they’ll be free to do kinds of jobs where you need humans. Smart ones won’t have problems, I guess – at worst they’ll be working alongside robots. And not so smart ones can always go and improve the world in little but important ways, we all know it needs improvement. And many jobs where currently we have poor employment may benefit from more hands and minds as well. Think school education with a teacher per 10 kids, not per 100 as now.
Teacher? You mean my personal robot?
I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately. I work in a field that uses data but makes use of it with artistic flare and salesmanship. I think humans working in my field in the future will need to be less competent in gleaning insight from data and far more skilled at presenting it in an interesting and compelling manner. I already see narrow AI being used in dramatic and interesting ways, but I don’t think I’m too worried about my job for now. I welcome AI and robotics. I think we’ll adapt. Then again, there are no maps for these territories.
Great article Bob. We’re really on the cusp of the most transformative age in human history. It’s going to be reeeally interesting to watch.
Oh god, does that mean we have the industrial revolution to thank for ‘life coach’s and mindfulness experts?!
What unforgivable shite will we come up with next?
Johnny has the right of this I think.
Ultimately, most people need to “work” for their own mental and emotional benefit – after a few periods of long term illness and a job which grants spells of inactivity I can say anecdotally I have to keep myself busy (something I’ve recommended to many colleagues). The mistake we make here is in thinking that menial soul-destroying jobs count towards that beneficial “work” – or at least that they do for more than a minority of people.
What fascinates (and worries) me is how this will impact on our economy. The current system would demands that someone has ownership of the robots and profits from the output of their robots – groovy for them. If this means wiping out the employment of a large section of society then the economy stalls, however. Wider gaps in equality, huge numbers of unemployed and less economic activity in the foundations of the markets which can only collapse the whole edifice.
For me, the problem is not the robots, but how our greedy and powerful establishment react to them.
Dey turk err jurbs?!
I’m surprised this didn’t come up when you discussed the robot chef on SGU – or how it can possibly cook if it can’t taste or smell, but I digress.
I can see it flipping burgers, and if you think those human fast food workers cost too little to be worth replacing with robots, then wait till Bernie Sanders doubles the minimum wage to $15/hr.
Martin Ford gave a good talk about robots taking our jobs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ym3F3c9z6Wo
He answered skeptics that this won’t be just another case of people moving from one industry to another, because AI isn’t specific to one industry but can learn and expand to all industries. And investment in education won’t save people, because not everyone is cut out for higher education, and many white collar office jobs are even easier to automate than blue collar jobs, and there’s only so much demand for rocket scientists and PhDs.
It’s ironic that this is such a problem, because you’d think that if robots could do all the work, we could just sit back, relax, and enjoy the fruits of their labor. It should be a utopia, but without a job and a paycheck we’d starve. So the radical solution is to basically put everyone on welfare and food stamps, which brings us back to Bernie Sanders. But this scenario avoids the two problems with Communism. The human-nature-defying “From each according to his ability” wouldn’t apply, because humans wouldn’t need to work. And the “need” in “To each according to his need” wouldn’t be determined by a corrupt bureaucrat but by a very smart and fair robot.
But we’re not there yet, so get back to work.
P.S. Can you imagine if the robot chef is hacked? It could stab you or better yet concoct some poison and put it in your food.
Wonder what will happen with the Pentagon’s third offset strategy.
http://federalnewsradio.com/defense/2016/02/unraveling-mystery-third-offset-strategy/
“comprises specific research areas like man-machine teaming, autonomous learning systems, semi-autonomous weapons systems and assisted human operations.”
The most interesting question about this is the political one. History shows us that every so often labour must organise to pull back some power from the few that control land and capital. Unemployed people have a lot more time to spend on thinking and organising, so I suspect something will be found to keep the mob occupied.
I’d also point out our track record for predicting the future of this type of thing is pretty rubbish. Predicting technology and human behavior together, good luck!